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Current Edge Daily Brief 2nd September 2025
Quote of the Day
“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” – SUN TZU
What the Others Say
“Marcon is right on all counts. A normal government would have welcomed initiatives that promote peace and held friends such as France in high esteem. But, alas, we are dealing with Netanyahu’s Israel.” – HAARETZ, ISRAEL
Table of Contents
THE BIG PICTURE
- IE Explained: Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood: What a new study says
- IE Opinion: PM Modi’s address to SCO 2025: Security, Connectivity, Opportunity (Narendra Modi)
- IE Explained: The ‘noise’ in April-June GDP: Taking a closer look at the numbers (Siddharth Upasani)
NEWS IN SHORT
- Afghanistan Earthquake
The Big Picture
IE Explained: Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood: What a new study says
Syllabus: Pre/Mains – Geography
Why in News?
New study finds AMOC collapse risk significantly higher than previously estimated, with tipping point possible within decades.
What is AMOC?
- Large Atlantic ocean current system, part of global conveyor belt
- Transports warm tropical waters northward to cool and sink
- Returns southward as deep current distributing heat globally
- Currently weakest in 1,600 years due to climate crisis
New Study Findings
- Tipping point for inevitable shutdown could occur within few decades
- Actual collapse may take 50-100 years after tipping point breached
- No longer considered low-probability event (previously <10% chance)
- Climate models show 34-45% weakening by 2100
- Published in Environmental Research Letters, August 28, 2025
Collapse Consequences
- Europe: Severe cooling, loss of Gulf Stream’s warming effect
- Temperature drops: 4-10°C regional cooling in Europe, some areas -55°F in winter
- Precipitation changes: Reduced European rainfall, southward tropical rain belt
- Sea ice expansion: Increased ice around Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas
- Agriculture impact: UK farming area suitable for crops drops from 32% to 7%
- Global effects: Northern Hemisphere cooling, potential El Niño disruption
Causes of AMOC Weakening
- Freshwater influx: Melting Greenland ice and Arctic reducing water density
- Global warming: Disrupts density differences driving circulation
- Reduced sinking: Less dense freshwater doesn’t sink like saltwater
- Indian Ocean factor: Rapid warming increases Indian Ocean precipitation, reducing Atlantic rainfall, temporarily strengthening AMOC through higher salinity
- Future uncertainty: If Pacific warming matches Indian Ocean, AMOC advantage disappears.
IE Opinion: PM Modi’s address to SCO 2025: Security, Connectivity, Opportunity
Syllabus: Pre/Mains – International Relations
Why in News?
PM Modi addressed the 25th SCO Summit in China outlining India’s vision based on Security, Connectivity, and Opportunity pillars while condemning terrorism and calling for global institutional reforms.
India’s SCO Vision: Three Pillars Framework
Security Pillar
- Terrorism, separatism, extremism major challenges to regional development
- Referenced Pahalgam terror attack as assault on humanity, not just India
- Condemned double standards on terrorism with Pakistan PM present
- India leading joint operations against Al-Qaeda and affiliated groups
- Enhanced coordination proposed against terror financing and radicalization
- Four decades of terrorism scars – mothers losing children, children orphaned
- No country can consider itself completely safe from terrorism
Connectivity Pillar
- Strong connectivity opens doors to trust, development beyond mere trade
- India backing Chabahar Port and International North-South Transport Corridor
- Enhanced linkages with Afghanistan and Central Asia through these projects
- Connectivity must uphold sovereignty and territorial integrity principles
- Indirect reference to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor concerns
- Connectivity bypassing sovereignty loses trust and meaning
Opportunity Pillar
- 2023 Indian presidency introduced fresh cooperation areas
- Start-ups, innovation, traditional medicine, youth empowerment initiatives
- Digital inclusion and shared Buddhist heritage programs
- Proposed Civilizational Dialogue Forum for cultural exchanges
- Platform to share ancient civilizations, art, literature, traditions globally
- Moving SCO beyond governments to connect people, scientists, scholars
Reform and Global Positioning
Institutional Reforms
- Welcome four new SCO centers for organized crime, drug trafficking, cybersecurity
- Called for UN reforms on 80th anniversary occasion
- SCO should guide multilateralism and inclusive world order
- Global South aspirations confined to outdated frameworks denies future justice
- Time to change from black-and-white screen to display colorful dreams
India’s Development Invitation
- Reform, Perform, Transform motto driving India’s progress
- Converting challenges into opportunities from Covid to economic uncertainties
- Wide-ranging reforms creating national and international cooperation opportunities
- Invited all SCO members to join India’s development journey
IE Explained: The ‘noise’ in April-June GDP: Taking a closer look at the numbers
Syllabus: Pre/Mains – Economy
Why in News?
India’s April-June 2025 GDP growth of 7.8% may be overstated due to exceptionally low GDP deflator of 0.9%, creating disconnect between real and nominal growth figures.
GDP Growth Paradox
- Real GDP growth at 7.8% – highest in five quarters, beating all expectations
- Nominal GDP growth only 8.8% – three-quarter low, indicating weaker underlying activity
- Real GDP calculated at ₹47.89 lakh crore vs nominal GDP of ₹86.05 lakh crore
- Gap between real and nominal unusually narrow due to minimal inflation adjustment
The Deflator Problem
- GDP deflator dropped to just 0.9% – lowest in roughly six years
- WPI inflation averaged below 0.3% in April-June, turning negative in June (-0.13%)
- CPI inflation fell to 2.7% – lowest in over six years
- Single deflation method used for most sectors instead of more accurate double deflation
- Manufacturing profit margins from lower input costs not properly adjusted in calculations
Sectoral Impact Analysis
- Services sector: Real growth 9.3% (eight-quarter high) but nominal only 11.3%
- Services deflator at 1.9% much lower than actual CPI services inflation of 3.4%
- Manufacturing: Growth may be overstated by 150 basis points due to deflation methodology
- Agriculture: Grew 3.7% vs 1.5% in previous year, supported by good monsoon
- If correct deflators applied, overall GDP growth would be around 7% instead of 7.8%
Future Growth Outlook
- WPI inflation turned further negative in July (-0.58%) – first negative in 20 months
- CPI inflation hit eight-year low of 1.55% in July
- RBI expects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in FY26 – 150bps lower than FY25
- GDP deflator likely to remain low, continuing disconnect with high-frequency economic indicators
- Nominal GDP may be better metric to track actual economic momentum this year.
News in Short
Afghanistan earthquake
Why in News?
A 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan on August 31, 2025, killing over 800 people and injuring more than 2,000.
Earthquake Details
- Magnitude: 6.0 on Richter scale
- Time: 11:47 PM local time on Sunday, August 31, 2025
- Location: Epicenter 27 km northeast of Jalalabad in Nangarhar province, near Pakistan border
- Depth: Just 8 kilometers (shallow earthquake)
- Casualties: Over 812 killed, 2,835 injured
- Damage: At least 600 homes destroyed, entire villages flattened
Why the Earthquake Was So Deadly?
Shallow Depth Impact
- Shallow earthquakes (less than 70 km depth) are more dangerous as they carry more energy to the surface
- This quake struck at only 8 km depth, causing maximum surface damage
- Tremors felt as far as 140 km away in Kabul and across Pakistan
Timing and Vulnerability
- Occurred at midnight when most people were sleeping indoors
- Many victims were crushed by collapsing buildings made of mud and stone
- Rural homes in Afghanistan are poorly constructed and cannot withstand seismic activity
Geographical Challenges
- Remote mountainous terrain made rescue operations difficult
- Roads blocked by landslides prevented quick access to affected areas
- Taliban government had to use helicopters for evacuations
Why Afghanistan Is Earthquake-Prone?
Tectonic Activity
- Located at collision zone where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet
- India moves toward Eurasia at 45 mm per year, creating intense seismic activity
- This collision zone accounts for 15% of all seismic energy released globally each year
Complex Fault Systems
- Situated on multiple fault lines in Hindu Kush and Himalayan regions
- Same tectonic collision that formed the Himalayas continues to cause earthquakes
- 12 earthquakes above magnitude 7 have occurred since 1900 in Hindu Kush region
Recent Earthquake History
- 2023: Three major earthquakes in Herat province killed nearly 1,300 people
- 2022: 5.9 magnitude quake killed at least 1,300 people in southeast region
- 2011: Similar magnitude earthquake in New Zealand killed only 185 people due to better infrastructure
